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As global leaders assemble in Brazil for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, it is essential to review how we are faring together in cutting worldwide emissions of greenhouse gases.

In spite of three decades of UN climate summits, approximately half of the CO2 built up in the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution has been emitted after the year 1990. Coincidentally, 1990 was the publication of the First Assessment Report by the IPCC, which confirmed the threat of anthropogenic climate change. As scientists work on the Seventh Assessment Report, they do so aware that scientific findings remains eclipsed by political influences. Regardless of well-intentioned efforts, the world is remains dangerously off track to avert catastrophic climate change.

Unprecedented CO₂ Levels and Fossil Fuel Dependency

Latest figures show that CO₂ concentrations reached a record high of 423.9 ppm in 2024, with the growth rate from 2023 to 2024 surging by the largest yearly increase since modern measurements began in 1957. Based on the Global Carbon Project, ninety percent of worldwide carbon dioxide output in 2024 originated from the combustion of carbon-based energy sources, while the remaining 10% was due to land-use changes such as deforestation and wildfires.

Although the increase in fossil CO₂ emissions in 2024 was driven by higher use of gas and oil—accounting for over half of global emissions—coal burning also attained a record high, constituting 41%. Despite the previous climate summit's evaluation calling for nations to move beyond fossil fuels, collective plans still intend to extract over twice the quantity of hydrocarbons in the year 2030 than is consistent with keeping planet heating to 1.5C, with continued extraction of gas justified as a less polluting bridge fuel.

The Illusion of Eco-Friendly Measures

Rather than concentrating on financial motivators to accelerate the elimination of carbon fuels, climate policies are heavily reliant on feelgood nature positive solutions that seek to neutralize CO2 output by planting trees rather than cutting factory discharges. While conserving, enlarging, and rehabilitating ecological absorbers like forests and wetlands is inherently good, studies has demonstrated that there is not enough land to achieve the global goal of carbon neutrality using ecological methods by themselves.

Roughly 1 billion hectares—a territory larger than the United States of America—is needed to fulfill carbon neutrality commitments. Over 40% of this land would need to be converted from current applications like food production to carbon sequestration projects by the year 2060 at an unprecedented rate.

Although this ideal restoration could be achieved, forests require years to grow and can burn down, so they should not be viewed as a quick or permanent carbon storage solution, especially in a fast-changing environment. As extreme heat and dryness engulf more of the planet, these well-intentioned efforts could literally go up in smoke.

The Diminishing of Natural Carbon Sinks

Research data indicates that about half of the total CO₂ emitted annually remains in the atmosphere, while the remainder is taken up by oceans and land ecosystems. With global heating, these environmental absorbers are becoming less effective at capturing CO₂, which means that more carbon builds up in the atmosphere, further exacerbating climate change. Transferring the reduction responsibility onto the land sector simply relieves the fossil fuel industry from the pressure to cut pollution in the near future.

The Climate Liability and Future Generations

Achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century demands carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which at present relies almost exclusively on land-based measures to absorb excess carbon from the atmosphere. Polluters can simply purchase offsets to counterbalance their discharges and continue with normal operations. At the same time, the planetary heat imbalance caused by the burning of fossil fuels keeps on further disrupt the global climate system. In effect, we are adding more carbon debt to our global account, leaving our descendants with an unpayable liability.

To limit the scale and duration of exceeding the global warming targets, the world eventually needs to go well beyond the neutralising effect of carbon neutrality and start to drawdown cumulative historical emissions to reach net negative emissions.

The Political Distortion of Carbon Neutrality

Based on the latest numbers from the international carbon research group, plant-based carbon removal is currently absorbing the equivalent of about 5% of annual fossil carbon dioxide emissions, while engineered carbon extraction represents only about one-millionth of the carbon released from fossil fuels. More generous industry estimates place it at around 0.1% of worldwide CO2 output. At the risk of sounding like a heretic, the policy twisting of net zero is an insidious loophole that distracts from the research-based necessity to eradicate the main source of our warming world—fossil fuels.

The Urgent Need for Concrete Action

While this scientific reality should dominate discussions at Cop30, history indicates that gradual, cautious steps and deference to politics will win out. Vague statements of future ambition will keep on delay the urgent need for definite short-term measures. Until policymakers have the courage to implement carbon pricing to terminate the age of hydrocarbons, we are adding increasing amounts of CO2 to the atmosphere, worsening the environmental disaster now unfolding all around us.

The challenge we confront is simple: take real action to the evidence-based situation of our predicament or endure the consequences of this profound moral failure for centuries to come.